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Showing posts from August, 2020

Tesla Continues Parabolic Rise; How Evergreen Will Play Options

Tesla has had a twelve month run that, if one can assume that a conservatively managed fund will average 6% YoY, equates to 190 years worth of gains. For much of this time, Evergreen Financial Research has pushed the case that shares of Tesla were extremely undervalued, and that the company was gripped by the lapels and held underwater by most mainstream financial news outlets. For the first time ever, Evergreen Financial Research believes that Tesla has, from a valuation standpoint, grown into its well-deserved shell. Tesla remains an interestingly valued firm; while Tesla seems to be overvalued by a fundamental perspective (EPS 1094), there is hardly a shred of a guarantee that the market will not continue to value Tesla based on the assumption that the firm succeeds in pioneering the transition to renewable energy, and eats every ICE automobile in the process. Tesla shattered many bears' expectations in Q2 of this year by posting a profit, and those who follow the stock know tha

FinTwit Roundup: 11 August 2020

Early Monday morning, the Russian Federation (more specifically, Vladimir Putin, President of Russia) announced that a new COVID-19 vaccine is not only effective, but that Putin's own daughter has already been vaccinated with it. In one of the greatest multi-generational mic-drops of all time, Russia decided to name the vaccine Sputnik V . Unsurprisingly, the news was met with great skepticism - partly because vaccine headlines have become a daily occurrence, and partly because a Russian nanobot vaccine wouldn't be the weirdest conspiracy theory that turned out to be true. Gold, silver, and other precious metals crashed today to levels not seen since ten days ago. The markets are in pure shock.    As one Twitter user points out, this is the largest negative one-day percent drop that Silver has seen since the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers.  The -15% drop was surprising, but not as much given the macro environment. Markets have been quite lackluster for a few days now, leading so

AMD Continues to Grow; Poised to Steal Market Share from Intel, Nvidia

Two of AMD's highest selling consumer/enthusiast CPUs - Ryzen 9 3900X (left), Ryzen 7 3700 X (right) Shares of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: $AMD ) have torn through the $70's as if it were a blink, shooting up following the most recent earnings report. As of Thursday's market close, shares of $AMD traded at $86.71/share. Given 1170000000 shares outstanding, this gives AMD a market cap of $101.45 billion.  AMD's earnings showed a continuation of healthy reports and good news. Revenue increased 8% QoQ and 26% from 2Q2019, while operating expenses increased by 6.2% QoQ and 20.1% YoY. Gross margins gained 3pp YoY but lost 2pp QoQ, and for the past quarter were 44%.   We believe AMD to be very uniquely positioned. AMD has risen in market share over Intel for seven consecutive quarters. The last time that CPU market share was this close between two manufacturers was in 2005. While Intel Corporation's CPUs tend to perform better on a per-core/per-thread basis, AMD's

Apple, Inc. Passes Saudi Aramco on Track to be World's First $2T Company; Shares Overvalued

Article by Christopher Larson of Evergreen Financial Research ( @tophlars ) Shares of Apple, Inc. ( NASDAQ: $AAPL ) traded higher today, reaching a market cap of $1.90T, before rolling over and erasing most of the day's gains on Tuesday afternoon. Apple has been on fire recently (in a good way), after they reported better-than-expected sales this past quarter. One of the more memorable items on Apple's balance sheet was the company's current cash position: $192.8 billion in cash on-hand, or about $45/share of cash. On this, Kaden McBride ( @McBrideKade ), Chief Analyst at Evergreen Capital, tweeted, "I guess you can save quite a bit on R&D when you don't innovate." Apple, Inc. has 4,280,000,000 shares outstanding. To reach a record-breaking market cap of two trillion, shares of Apple would need to reach a price of $467.29 per share. Evergreen feels safe issuing a "Soft Sell" rating to Apple, or a 2/5 rating, based on current prices, and with resp